Predicting species abundance by implementing the ecological niche theory
Ecography
Where a species can live predicts how many of them live there. We estimated environmental suitability from occurrence records for 50 endemic species of the Australian Wet Tropics. We then related suitability to abundance from 29 years of uninterrupted monitoring. The fitted relationship predicted abundance at fine resolution across each species’ range, explaining 55% of deviance on average.
Counts are expensive and occurrence records are cheap, so a validated link between them matters for conservation. The relationship was not equally strong for every species, and the paper reports that variation rather than averaging it away.
Original abstract as published
Species are not uniformly distributed across the landscape. For every species, there should be few favoured sites where abundance is high and many other sites of lower suitability where abundance is low. Consequently, local abundance could be thought of as a natural expression of species response to local conditions. The correlation between abundance and environmental suitability has been well documented, and a recent meta-analysis has suggested that this relationship could be a generality. Despite the importance and potential implication of the abundance–suitability relationship, its predictive power for meaningful extrapolations has been surprisingly poorly explored. In this study, we showed how a highly predictable trend can be extracted from the abundance–suitability relationship, accurately predicting the variation in species abundance at a high spatial resolution. We produced high-quality environmental suitability estimations for 50 endemic species in the Australian Wet Tropics. Environmental suitability derived from species distribution models was related to observed abundance estimated using data from 29 years of uninterrupted monitoring effort. We used the fitted relationship to accurately predict abundance at a fine scale across the species range. Our results showed that the abundance–suitability relationship was strong for endemic species in the Australian Wet Tropics. The predictive power of our models was high, explaining, on average, 55% of the deviance across taxa. Despite interspecific variation in the strength of the abundance–suitability relationship associated with potential intrinsic estimation biases, our approach provides a powerful tool for predicting abundance across the species range at a fine scale. The potential for robust abundance predictions from occurrence-based species distribution models shown in this study are numerous, and it could have a significant impact in enhancing species conservation and management decisions.
de la Fuente, A., Hirsch, B., Cernusak, L., & Williams, S. (2021). "Predicting species abundance by implementing the ecological niche theory." Ecography. 44: 1723-1730.
Project page: Predicting abundance from environmental suitability