Assessing Bird Population Trends to Inform Conservation Priorities

Published:

Problem

Rapid shifts in bird population trends can signal emerging conservation needs, but time-series data are often under-analysed in policy contexts.
Goal: quantify population trajectories using robust statistical methods and translate results into an interactive Shiny app to support decision-making and prioritise protection for vulnerable species.

Approach

  • Compiled long-term monitoring datasets, harmonised time-series counts.
  • Fitted Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) with time and covariates (e.g., survey effort, habitat changes) to characterise population trends for each species.
  • Identified 14 species showing significant declines or vulnerabilities and nominated them for elevated protection under national (e.g., Threatened Species lists) and international frameworks (e.g., IUCN priorities).
  • Developed a user-friendly Shiny application to visualise trends, allowing stakeholders and policymakers to interactively explore trajectories, confidence intervals, and nomination thresholds.

Stack

  • Statistical analysis: GLMs for time-series trend estimation, covariate adjustment, trend significance testing.
  • Data workflows: cleaning and harmonising multi-source count data, exploratory visualisation, reproducible scripting.
  • Interactive outreach: built and deployed a Shiny web app to share results with managers, NGOs, and decision-makers.
  • Implementation: conducted entirely in R, with version-controlled code on GitHub and transparent deployment.

Results

  • Detected significant declining trends in rainforest bird species.
  • Provided robust statistical evidence to support elevated protection recommendations.
  • Enhanced accessibility of results through a live, interactive Shiny app.

Impact

  • The findings directly informed formal nominations for elevated protection under national and international priority frameworks.
  • Shiny app promoted transparency and stakeholder engagement, facilitating policy uptake and broader awareness.

Links & Resources

Role

  • Designed and conducted the analytical workflow (GLMs and trend detection).
  • Harmonised complex time-series datasets.
  • Built and deployed the Shiny app for outreach and transparency.
  • Drafted the manuscript and coordinated conservation policy communication.